Hot Like Pepper - Confusing poll numbers from parties - Politics

Politics : Confusing poll numbers from parties

2007/11/1 16:40:00

The UNC Alliance says it is winning the St. Agustine seat currently held by Winston Dookeran, the leader of the Congress of the People (COP). But the COP is still confident of winning not only that seat but many others, even suggesting that it can beat Basdeo Panday in Couva North, the constituency he has held since 1976.

The COP advertising using polls takes into account surveys done by three organizations but leaves out one that shows the UNC Alliance is way ahead of the COP as the campaign comes to a close.

The ads show both the PNM and COP in a deadheat at just under 30 per cent.

On TV they show the UNC-A at 10.7 per cent and in the print ads the figure goes up slightly to 11.4 per cent.

Independent observers say the discrepancies, though minor, demonstrate that the COP is lying about polling results and show the party's desperation to use propaganda to try to influence the vote on Monday.

They also say based on the reality on the ground it is clear than the the COP numbers cannot be correct.

"That’s clearly absurd, and incredulous. No one in their right mind would believe that UNC-A is at such a low level," said one indepndent observer who is experienced in running election campaigns.

Just over a week ago pollster Selwyn Ryan said that the People's National Movement (PNM) has become a minority party.

In an earlier comment Ryan said there is no doubt that the UNC-A remains a force to be recokoned with.

And while there is a continuing debate on the polls, reports from some UNC-A officials say organized gangs are destroying their campaign posters and banners. They also report that gangs have tried to intimdate them.

In one constituency, Barataria-San Juan, an official said they can't even walk in some areas without feeling threatened.

And in a new twist there are reports from that marginal constituency that the COP campaign is now asking supporters to vote for the PNM.

The UNC-A has accused the COP of being a PNM ally, working to split votes in critical areas to let the PNM win. If the reports are true, they would confirm what the UNC-A has been saying on its platforms.